Tnt Tumble

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The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.

If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.

As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.

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“At what point does someone come along where you say no to the offer?” Carton asked.

A Bank of America study released on 1 September found that the median deposit account balance of households that participated in online betting was 59% higher than households that avoided the activity. As prediction markets rapidly expand alongside traditional sports betting, the findings have prompted “some to blur the lines between entertainment and investment”, according to a proprietary study undertaken by BofA.

The ongoing battle between states’ rights advocates and those who support federal regulations in sports trading is not black and white. Carton indicated in his monologue that engaging in the trading of sports-event contracts amounts to unregulated gambling. Designated Contracts Markets, better known as prediction markets, are regulated on the federal level by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

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While sports event contracts are currently the tentpole category for the prediction market industry, data indicate bettors and traders are embracing other categories.

Fullstory points out that while 62% of consumers have dabbled in sports event contracts, 42% traded economic or financial derivatives on a prediction market while a comparable percentage transacted in an election or political event contract. More than a quarter traded at least one entertainment or pop culture derivative.

That widening breadth is vital for the industry at a time when some analysts estimate volume could jump to $10 trillion by 2035 – a projection that is largely rooted in other categories surpassing sports for the top spot.