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About Bayraktar
Bet365 noted the impact of the UK government’s near doubling of the remote gaming duty, which increased from 21% to 40% on 1 April this year.
Additionally, a new remote betting duty is set to come in from April 2027, which will raise the effective tax rate on all sports betting products except horse racing from 15% to 25%.
Several other operators have responded to the UK tax hikes by announcing shop closures.
How to play Bayraktar
Citizens gaming analyst Jordan Bender wrote in a 16 Sept. note that with the NFL season now under way: “Genius should benefit from increased spending across both traditional sports betting and the emerging prediction market industry.”
Added Bender: Genius’ recent deals with Kalshi and Polymarket “have provided an incremental positive catalyst for [Legend founder] Mr Kisberg and team”.
“We think investors will be looking for signs that Genius can leverage Legend’s relationship to capture a larger share of the rapidly expanding sports betting and prediction market opportunity,” he aded in a note this week.
What is Bayraktar?
As with PASPA, this matter revolves heavily around federalism versus states’ rights. Traditional sports betting is governed by individual state regulators with varying laws and regulations. Federal derivatives are regulated by the CFTC, which has fully embraced prediction markets under US President Donald Trump after rejecting them in previous administrations.
The web of lawsuits and court rulings involving prediction markets has greatly complicated the issue of jurisdiction. Kalshi has been forced to limit trading in multiple states, most notably Nevada, and the CFTC has gone to unprecedented lengths to protect its licencees. This includes suing nine states directly and issuing emergency orders to reject state mandates.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig is currently the lone sitting commissioner for an agency that traditionally features a bipartisan group of five. Selig has repeatedly defended both the legitimacy of prediction markets as financial assets and the role of the CFTC in overseeing them. The CFTC under his direction has embarked on a series of rule proposals regarding prediction markets, although detractors argue that the proposed changes still allow for sports contracts and in some ways could be seen as a tightening of the belt to make a Supreme Court review look more favourable.
