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Prediction market volume could soar to $10 trillion per year by 2035, compounding at a staggering annual rate of 70%, according to new research by Bernstein analysts.
Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.
The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.
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Below the largest exchanges, he sees numerous operators competing for relatively small shares of a fast-growing category. “If you get 1% of this market, I think it’s a huge opportunity,” Patel said. “There are a lot of people fighting to get 1%.”
Jefferies estimates exchanges can retain approximately 65% of explicit transaction fees, with the balance distributed across clearinghouses, brokers and liquidity providers. It therefore expects more operators to bring parts of the infrastructure in-house.
For the independent suppliers growing alongside them, however, the opportunity expands with every new exchange, contract and market maker. The consumer-facing platforms may attract the users, but their products cannot trade at scale without the data, liquidity and operational machinery developing behind the screen.
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As Barrett puts it, MEGA is “ultimately a retention tool that helps our partners move away from heavy bonus and costs”.
With ice hockey and UFC-themed initiatives driving engagement in North America and a 45% lifetime value increase seen with the launch of MEGA Shoot, a player-versus-player simulation penalty shootout game initiative which launched during the World Cup, it is an exciting time for the Malta-based platform provider.
Barrett also describes how MEGA can “make a player feel connected within the software ecosystem and the brands” Soft2Bet operate with.
