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The US addressable market is vastly larger and customer recruitment remains strong. Marantelli says Kalshi increased its number of clients fivefold during the World Cup, while White Swan predicts that NFL prediction markets could generate between $5 billion and $7 billion of liability in a single week.
But he acknowledges the possibility that faster customer losses could eventually test the sustainability of the model.
“They lose quicker, dry up quicker, recruitment or re-recruitment,” he says. “If the recruitment of players dries up, then what are you going to do? Definitely there can be components like that.”
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Alongside the recovery of NZ$11.5 million, the DIA also took action against the class 4 gambling society One Foundation.
One Foundation’s operating licence was suspended for six days after the DIA identified accounting failures relating to gambling proceeds, as well as a failure to surrender a licence for one of its pokies venues when required by law.
The DIA also issued new financial guidance for class 4 operators, with the aim of providing greater clarity on their accounting requirements and an explanation of their obligations.
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It could, therefore, take quite a bit longer than the timing of the initial filing indicates. The CFTC would have to publish its action and solicit public comment after White House review before writing a formal proposed rule. Any final rule would have to undergo another review and comment period before it could take effect.
The distinction matters for crypto businesses. The filing shows regulatory work is moving forward, but exchanges and other market participants cannot yet consider it a set of rules they must adhere to.
The CFTC’s move also comes as other US regulators continue to craft their own crypto policies. The agency and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) jointly issued an interpretation in March on how certain crypto assets would be treated under federal securities laws.
