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Sahil Patel, founder of competitive intelligence provider Aldrin AI, said those relationships help explain Kalshi’s position.
“A lot of market makers want to go where there’s liquidity,” he said, adding that platform stability and Kalshi’s investment in the financial side of its market-maker relationships were also important. “I think Kalshi is a freight train that’s just kind of running away with it.”
Aldrin monitors product changes, advertising, social media activity, app-store rankings and trading volume across prediction market operators. Patel said the objective is to connect those indicators and show how a product launch supported by advertising affects volume and market share.
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Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.
As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.
With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.
How to play Durian Dynamite
“We felt there was a gap for a continent-wide network that could connect organisations, encourage collaboration, and help build a stronger collective voice on player protection. ARGN is not here to replace national organisations or regulators. Its purpose is to support and strengthen the work already being done by bringing people and organisations together.”
But while the ARGN intends to enhance collaboration between stakeholders across the continent, Akolade asserts the aim is to promote “common principles rather than identical regulations”.
Akolade explains: “Every African country has its own legal framework, culture, and level of market development, so a single model might not work everywhere.
